Zelensky’s Desperate Attempt to Save His and NATO Skin: 30-Day Ceasefire

The 30 days ceasefire give nothing to Russia and give massively to exhausted Ukraine and NATO’s countries.

After President Trump stopped aid to Ukraine all Liberal radical extremist leaders in Europe were shocked and the Liberal radical extremist Macron came up with idea of 30 day truce between Russia and Ukraine. The French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, said: “Such a truce – on air, sea and energy infrastructure – would allow us to determine whether Vladimir Putin is acting in good faith” After that this was passed to the US Administration that “negotiated many hours with Ukraine” that finally offered 30 days ceasefire in a time when the situation on battlefield for Ukraine is very difficult.

Zelensky have achieved one obvious gain, the resumption of American aid and intelligence sharing, and avoided being locked into a minerals deal in the absence of security guarantees.

Battlefield Realities: Assessing Ukraine’s Military Position

Kursk Region

In seven months in the Kursk adventure the Ukrainian Forces lost more than 70 thousand soldiers (killed, wounded and missing) and lost thousands pieces  of equipment (tanks, IFV, armored vehicles, artillery). An elite Russian drone group the Rubicon alone destroyed 500 hundred Ukrainians in different types of vehicles. After Sverdlikovo fell, the only route to Sudzha was under constant fire, as were the roads through the fields. Then came Operation “Potok”, which provided Russian forces – about 1,000 soldiers access of Ukraine forces rear via the gas pipeline in Sudzha, which finally broke the Ukrainian forces. After Russian surprise attack from gas pipes, in danger of being cut off in Sudza the Ukrainians abandoned positions under the cover of darkness.

The chaotic retreat from the Kursk region forced the Ukrainian  Forces to leave behind expensive NATO equipment (Abrams tanks, Bradleys and M-777 howitzer), which fell into the hands of the Russians. Images  showing roads and fields littered with the destroyed NATO equipment and bodies of Ukrainian troops who were massacred as they attempted to flee the Russian onslaught.

After defeat in Velyka Novosilka, Zelensky appointed Gen. Drapatyi as commander of the group Khortytsia who managed to slow down Russian advances on  front line Pokrovsk – Velyka Novosilka and in some area Ukrainian forces retaken some lost land back. Situation in Chasiv Yar and Toreck are also very difficult for Ukrainian forces and fall of both cities is imminent.

International Pressure and Shifting Alliances

• US Administration
  For the US Administration is most important to get something in return for  hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars that idiot Biden squandered.  President Trump had meetings with the men in the individual European’s countries, but he snubbed—and his subordinates also snubbed the top leaders of the EU institutions.
  US Secretary of State Marco Rubio cancelled a scheduled meeting with Kallas  after she arrived in Washington DC. Kallas has repeatedly expressed her clear opposition to the U.S. administration’s choices on the Ukrainian issue and arrogantly dismissed Trump’s Ukraine ceasefire initiative as a “dirty deal.”
  
• EU
  The EU is asking those willing to voluntarily provide military aid to Ukraine in the amount of 20-40 billion euros by creating a special fund Euractiv. Taking into account Hungary’s position, it was decided not to distribute this recommendation to everyone, but only to those who are ready to assist Ukraine. The deadline for expressing consent is April 30. The EU alone could mobilize a total of 800bn euros for defense spending by:
  – Using its joint budget more creatively
  – Providing 150bn euros in loans to benefit the defense of the EU as a whole — so, for example, in air and missile defense, anti-drone systems, and military mobility
  – Suspending EU fiscal rules to allow individual EU countries to spend more on defense
  Hungarian Foreign Minister exposed the hypocrisy of Ursula von der Leyen saying; “For years, she opposed peace talks in Ukraine but changed her position a few days ago to appease US leadership. This shows a total lack of credibility’ and disregard for ‘human suffering.”
• Coalition of the Willing
  Coalition of the willing is another Liberal radical political elites attempt to mask the domestic difficult economic situation specially illegal alien invasion and the real cost to upkeeping them with Ukraine issue. After idiot Biden is out, and the White House wants peace European Liberal radicals under Starmer and Macron’s leadership stepping up preparations to support Ukraine in the event a peace deal was struck. Starmer said the “coalition of the willing” had reaffirmed its commitment both to supporting Ukraine as it resists Russia’s three-year-old invasion and to securing any ceasefire that emerges from Trump’s overtures to Russia.
• Global South
  Most of the Global South countries see the war in Ukraine as the war between Traditional Values versus Western Liberal radical extremism. None of them sanctioned Russia, and some of them even increased economic and military cooperation.

Domestic Political Considerations within Ukraine

National identity has become a central issue, with Ukraine grappling with its relationship with Russia and the West. Fuelled Ukrainian nationalism banned the Russian language, culture and thrown  Orthodox church priests in jails as essential to preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence. While the western regions of Ukraine strongly support closer ties with Europe and NATO, the eastern and southern parts of the country—particularly areas with large Russian-speaking populations—are often more sympathetic to Russia. This regional divide contributes to the country’s political polarization, making it difficult to forge a cohesive national agenda.

• Corruption and Governance
• Corruption has long plagued Ukrainian politics, with entrenched oligarchic interests deeply embedded in the country’s political and economic systems. The post-Soviet period saw the rise of powerful oligarchs who controlled vast swaths of the economy and media, which in turn influenced political decisions. This concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few has hindered meaningful reform and led to a lack of public trust in political institutions. Corruption remains a deeply embedded issue as directly impact mobilization efforts helping avoid going in trenches to those that can afford to bribe officials, also all establishment and oligarch kids are safe from frontline – money talk.
• European Integration and Foreign Policy
• Ukraine’s aspirations to join EU and NATO, have been a key aspect of its foreign and domestic policy. Ukraine has made significant strides towards European integration. The desire to align with Europe is viewed by many as a way to secure a future free from Russian influence, while also modernizing the country’s institutions and economy. At the same time, Ukraine’s pursuit of European integration has deepened divisions within the country. The western regions, where support for European values and NATO membership is strong, contrast sharply with the pro-Russian sentiments found in the east and south. This divide often manifests in political parties and movements, with some advocating for a closer relationship with Europe and others pushing for more neutral or even pro-Russian policies.
• Economic Challenges
• Ukraine’s political stability is also influenced by its economic situation. The war with Russia has placed immense strain on Ukraine’s economy, contributing to inflation, a weakened currency, and a lack of foreign investment. The government has struggled to implement the economic reforms necessary to attract international support and rebuild the country’s infrastructure. While international organizations like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have provided financial assistance, the economic situation remains precarious.
• Moreover, the oligarchic control over key industries, such as energy, limits the potential for economic diversification and broad-based prosperity. Efforts to reform the economy are often stymied by political resistance from powerful elites who fear losing their wealth and influence.
• Ceasefire is not in Zelensky’s interest as forcible mobilised men returning from frontline could take revenge to the men catchers and also to establishment that avoided horror of trenches.  Recent murder of Demyan Ganul who forcibly took the men to the military enlistment offices could be begging of executions of man catchers. Furthermore the relatives form missing soldiers could start demanding the truth and compensation that the government cannot pay.

The Kremlin’s Response: Examining Russia’s Stance on the Ceasefire

For Russians, the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire means a temporary halt in Russia’s advance, while the Ukrainian military will have a chance to regroup its forces and reinforce the most vulnerable sectors of the frontline.

The Kremlin isn’t seeking a ceasefire—it is finishing the job and isn’t negotiating from weakness, it’s dictating the terms. The reality is that the West needs this ceasefire, not Russia. Ukraine’s battlefield position is collapsing, manpower shortages are becoming catastrophic, Western military and financial arsenals are being depleted, and even Trump’s administration knows that continued escalation is not sustainable. 

The Kremlin is not desperate for peace because Russia is winning the war on all fronts: militarily, economically (Russia has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, according to revised data released by the World Bank), and geopolitically (Putin hosted 36 world leaders on BRICS Summit and SPIEF 2024 was attended by more than 8,000 people and delegations from 76 countries, including 9 heads of state, 3 prime ministers). Western fake mainstream media cannot hide the truth anymore. Mainstream media lies about Ukraine’s military successes serve only Liberal radical political elites getting richer with money given to Ukraine you “scratch my back, I scratch yours.” Just check how many times Liberal radical extremists travelled in Kyiv after they gave Ukraine billions.

Kremlin is were aware that the maniac support of Ukraine depleted money and weapons. The EU is now sinking into economic stagnation, while its defense industry is so depleted that even €800 billion in military spending pledges won’t plug the gap.

Official Statements and Demands from Moscow

On press conference, Putin said:

“We agree with the proposals to cease hostilities, there are issues that we need to discuss, and I think that we need to talk about it with our American colleagues and partners, and, perhaps, have a call with President Trump and discuss it with him.”

“Russian troops are advancing in almost all areas of the front. So how will these 30 days be used? For forced mobilization to continue in Ukraine, for weapons to be delivered there, for the newly-mobilised units to be trained? … How can we and how will we be guaranteed that nothing like that will happen? How will control be organized?”

“Who will give orders to stop hostilities? … Who will determine where and who has violated a possible ceasefire agreement for 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles)?” how the ceasefire would be monitored and who would ensure that both parties are following the agreement.

The Role of Diplomacy

Diplomacy can be the key to peace in Ukraine however the West lost the opportunity to engage in peace process before the Battle of Bahmut where Wagner fighters showed whole Russia efficiency on the battlefield and for many Russians that was battle for Stalingrad and inspiration for many Russians to join the Russian army.

Now some military experts saying that the collapse of Ukraine’s army due to a lack of manpower can happen even if receive large military and financial help from the West.

The head of Russian diplomacy Lavrov, who in a recent interview mentioned the European position in the negotiation process “I am not interested in their position, honestly. For some time now, I have not been interested at all.” Why such harshness? Here’s why: “A temporary ceasefire, as the entire history since 2014 shows, has been declared more than once. These include the Minsk agreements, and the agreements that were destroyed by the 2014 coup, and the agreements in Istanbul. All of this was associated with the declaration of a ceasefire. All the time, each time after such agreements, it turned out that we were lied to. The Ukrainians lied with the support of their partners from Europe.”

Lavrov emphasized that Russia “needs a sustainable, lasting peace based on the fact that the root causes of the current situation are eliminated.”

According to Ivan Loshkaryov, associate professor with the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, the operation in the Kursk Region makes it clear that territorial exchanges are impossible while taking the process to a diplomatic level.